The world’s eyes are fixed on Ukraine as it has become engaged in a war with Russia that has the rest of us rocked to our core. I don’t specialize in Eastern Europe, so I’ve been doing some research so I can understand the factors that have led up to the current Russian-Ukrainian War. These are some of the best explanations I have found so far:
Why is Russia Invading Ukraine?
Another video: Why is Russia Invading Ukraine
In summary, Putin sees the shared history between Russia and the former Soviet state of Ukraine, as well as their current ethnic, cultural, and linguistic similarities, as justification for the reunification of the two sovereign states. In fact, Putin declared Ukraine to be a part of Russia. As such, the more Ukraine pivots to the West, the more Russian aggression has increased.
Putin has even said that NATO’s inclusion of and cooperation with more Eastern European countries is a threat to Russian security that is akin to the Nazi invasion into Soviet Russia during World War II. And then there are the substantial oil and natural gas reserves discovered in Ukraine (see second video above) that could undermine Russia’s supremacy as the region’s energy exporter.
This explains Russia’s militaristic acts against Georgia in 2008, its annexation of Crimea in 2014, and its current declaration of war against Ukraine.
Breaking Down the Ukrainian Invasion
The possibility of Russian military action in Ukraine loomed in the minds of the world’s leaders for several weeks. That being said, many of us were dumbfounded when Russia began its air raid on over a dozen Ukrainian cities and invaded Eastern Ukraine on February 24, 2022. As Russian forces continue to chip away at Ukrainian forces, here’s an overview of the war so far:
· Amidst diplomatic talks between Ukraine and Russia, Western powers mobilized troops and weapons systems around Eastern Europe. The U.S. began sending large amounts of weaponry to Ukraine in late January.
· On February 21st, Putin recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, two pro-Russian Eastern Ukrainian regions dominated by separatists. These two regions declared themselves to be independent republics in the wake of the Maiden Revolution of 2014. The Minsk accords sought to reunify these regions with Ukraine while still affording them “special status.”
· Russian forces attacked up to 15 cities in Ukraine on February 24th and warned that if anyone intervened on Ukraine’s behalf, Putin would come after them, no holds barred.
· A wave of hundreds of thousands Ukrainian refugees flooded into neighboring countries, and many more Ukrainians are believed to be displaced by the ongoing conflict.
· Ukrainian men aged 18-60 are required to remain in the country and be prepared to take up arms, citizens of Kyiv (Ukraine’s capital) were instructed to make Molotov cocktails as Russian forces took over the suburbs of the city
· Ukrainian President Zelensky and his ministers took up arms to join the fight, even though Zelensky believes that he will likely be assassinated since he sees himself as Russia’s #1 target.
· As of March 1, Russian forces occupy several eastern cities and continue their assault on Kyiv. Ukrainian forces have taken back Kharkiv, but that north-eastern city remains in an active state of play:
American and Western Roles and Interests
It’s all too easy to view foreign affairs from a U.S.-centric lens. Russia invaded Crimea under the Obama Administration and Ukraine under the Biden Administration, but Russia supported Assad during the Syrian Civil War under the Trump Administration, so Trump attacked Russian mercenaries stationed in Syria. Based on this overly simplistic observation, Democrat presidents are to blame for Russian military aggression in Europe.
While that last claim misses the mark, I do think there is a kernel of truth in the Reagan adage, “speak softly and carry a big stick.” When American leadership makes good on its commitments to its allies, holds everyone accountable, and isn’t afraid to retaliate when necessary, would-be bad actors on the international stage take note and are less brazen. Trump was able to push ISIS back with limited military interventions and retaliate against Russian interference in the Syrian Civil War without dragging us into a nuclear-armed conflict.
However, when American presidents like Obama bow down to foreign leaders and ignore their own “red lines” (aka, Syria), leaders like Putin notice. And when American presidents like Biden (who probably can’t pull up his own socks because he forgot where they’re supposed to go half the time) are too busy turning our Armed Forces into the Woke Forces while taking us from an energy exporter to an energy importer, bad dudes know they have some room to run.
As such, I think it’s obvious that American presidential leadership plays a part in foreign affairs since the U.S. is the predominate global superpower, but focusing on this factor blinds us to the broader context surrounding the Ukrainian invasion specifically and Russian aggression generally.
Most events in politics emerge because of a combination of factors, although it is often the case that one or two factors matter more than others. For instance, the use of sanctions could be one of those factors that tips the scale in the West’s favor. But I wouldn’t hold by breath on that one.
After two decades of waging the War on Terrorism, most of us are hesitant to spill American blood and spend American treasure on foreign soil unless there’s a clear threat levied against American lives or direct interests. And this is understandable. This philosophy can also be misapplied because we no longer live in the 18th century with the Monroe Doctrine, which outlined this way of thinking.
We now live in a globalized world with some bad actors willing to sacrifice security and stability for selfish ambition on every front from cyberwarfare to old-school military invasions. And after living through a global pandemic and global lockdown for nearly two years, I know we all have felt the pain of uncertainty about the future and how fragile supply chains can be. I’m sure most of us are still stocked up on toilet paper, sanitizers, and canned goods more so than before 2020.
A less stable Europe means a less stable global market and less stable world. And if you don’t like how interdependent the Western bloc has become, know that economic interdependence was a response to World War II and a pre-emption for World War III. But based on China threatening to cut off its medical supplies to America in 2020, it seems that we have yet to strike a balance between isolationism and globalism.
If you don’t buy the argument that European stability is America’s problem, then consider how well appeasement of hostile, bad actors has gone in the past. Britain’s Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain famously tried to subdue Adolf Hitler before World War II because the continent was still reeling from the first world war, and we all know how well that went.
Like school bullies, bad dudes like Putin will do whatever they can get away with, and then they’ll up the ante. So, for those who thought Putin would stop with Georgia, look what he did in Crimea. For those who thought he’d stop there, take a look at Syria and Eastern Ukraine. It seems to me that Putin is playing a long game against people with only short-term memories who believe that Russian aggression can be contained by the West sitting on its hands, passing feckless sanctions and saying bad things about Putin.
What’s to be done?
Don’t get me wrong, I am against an American war with Russia. I am against sending American troops to Ukraine. I am also against Americans pretending like the only border that matters are their own. It seems like most American political commentary comes down to hawks (those for war in general) calling for war to defend another country’s sovereignty. Then the doves (those for peace at almost any cost) pointing out the hawks’ hypocrisy of letting America’s southern border become a meaningless line on a map while downplaying the significance of a destabilized Europe.
The way I see it is that the doves and hawks are both bird brains. Doves need to learn to view national interests as more complex and long-term. An increasingly powerful Russia is a clear threat to democratic and would-be democratic governance in Eastern Europe. Likewise, hawks need to see the value in the carrots and sticks of diplomacy and not water down sanctions for political expediency. And it would be great if they stopped rattling their sabers because it plays well on TV.
That’s all for now, but stay tuned for more on the Russian-Ukrainian War and an upcoming post on the West’s sanctions against Russia.
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